New Ethiopian Dam on Nile worries Egypt

On 2 April 2011 the foundation stone was laid for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile. When it is finished in 2017 it will have cost $5 billion and produce 5-6.000 MW. In 2001 only 3% of Ethiopia’s hydroelectric power was developed, while 83% of the population lacked electricity. Building the dam and other projects are planned to boost development in Ethiopia.

An image of what the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will look like.  

The Blue Nile contributes 70% or more of the Nile’s water, the White Nile the rest. The dam is being built just inside the border before the Blue Nile enters Sudan. And the dam will affect the Nile running through Sudan and Egypt. Egypt and Sudan are afraid they will receive less of the life-giving water when the dam is filling up and running. The Egyptian government has proposed to halt the construction and make another study, but Ethiopia has rejected this. Because of uncertainty about consequences of the dam, the World Bank and other donors have refused to finance it. The Ethiopian government is selling national bonds to raise money.

 

Map of the White and Blue Nile meeting in Sudan.

Background
The Nile runs 6.650 km through 11 countries. Egypt has gained most of the water which has been flooding the Nile Delta and produced huge amounts of food.  An agreement was made in 1929 between Egypt and the UK (representing Sudan) allocating them minimum flows. As the Aswan High Dam was being built a 1959 agreement was made giving Egypt 55.5 billion m³ of water, Sudan 18.5 billion m³. The other countries claim they get too little and find it fair they will have more for development.

Failed negotiations

Negotiations on sharing the water has been going since 1999, but not led to few results. So in 2011 six countries formed the Nile River Basin Co-operative Framework Agreement (CFA). This also reflect the change in power relations. Ethiopia has become relatively stronger compared to Egypt over the last few decades. Egypt and Sudan have been sticking to the 1959 agreement, but recently Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir gave his support to construction of the dam in December 2013. The conflict affects the parties very much and more talks are needed to find a solution everybody can live with. Egypt may try to get more international support, but the government’s standing since the military coup in 2013 is lower than before. The worst case-scenario is an Egyptian military attack on the dam. But that is not likely for the moment.

  This is an image of what the new reservoir created by the dam will look like.

Possible Egyptian alternatives 

Egypt has access to the water of the Mediterranean which needs de-saltification and pumping to be accessible for farming or as drinking water. These are known technologies, but have huge costs and needs much energy. Egypt though has vast desert-areas with lots of sun which may produce solar energy. Egypt needs enormous amounts of energy anyway to develop its economy. Little development has taken place so far, but the potential is huge. Developing solar power would also alleviate some of the problems of the new dam. I personally proposed this to the Egyptian military in 2011, when I was jailed on a study trip on the Arab Spring. They didn't seem very interested. I hope they will change their mind in the future.

The city of Alexandria at the Mediterranean Sea.

 

Sources and more information
http://grandmillenniumdam.net/ethiopia-says-no-to-egypt-on-new-study-on-its-dam/
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/95538/Egypt/Politics-/Ethiopias-Renaissance-Dam--pct-completed,-efforts-.aspx
http://www.globalwaterforum.org/2013/02/18/the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-and-the-blue-nile-implications-for-transboundary-water-governance/
http://nilebasin.org/index.php  
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2014/02/27/Egypt-plans-dam-busting-diplomatic-offensive-against-Ethiopia/UPI-13631393533111/
http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/struggleoverthenile/2011/06/2011667594146703.html

 

I am open to your comments and proposals.
Warmly
Bjarte Bjørsvik