Egypt: Polarized 3 years after Mubarak - Need dialogue

On 11 February 2011 President Hosni Mubarak resigned after huge protests. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces took power. They promised a new Constitution and elections. Mohammed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood won the 2012 elections, but tried to extend his powers, and pushed through a constitution. Protest led by secular and liberal activists and parties, demanding Morsi’s resignation, grew to a climax on 30 June 2013. The Army stepped in on 3 July, removed Morsi and annulled the Constitution. Removing an elected president is called a coup.

Morsi with US Defense Secretary Hagel and El-Sisi April 2013.

A defiant Brotherhood has protested since. The military imprisoned their leadership and thousands of activists. Over 1.400 people have been killed. Some Brotherhood members have incited hatred against Coptic Christians, but most not. But the Brotherhood has been outlawed and designated a "terrorist" organization. Attacks on government forces and infrastructure have indeed been increasing, but are conducted by Jihadist organizations like Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, very far from the Brotherhood’s nonviolent line according to Stratfor.

Supporters of the ousted President Morsi demonstrate in Damietta on July 5 2013.

A new, more liberal constitution gained an overwhelming public support. But in reality liberal activists like Ahmed Maher, founder of the 6^th April Youth Movement, Alaa Abd El-fattah, and journalists including from Al Jazeera are harassed and incarcerated. Egypt need moderate voices and dialogue now, but polarization is the name of the day. Next month presidential elections will take place, many expect the Defense Minister and Commander in Chief el-Sisi to run and win. Many Egyptians long for stability and order, and seem willing to accept a strong leader cracking down on opponents. El-Sisi was recently promoted to Field Marshall, a title which ensures that he will have a superior rank than a future Commander in Chief. Anyway he will have a difficult task, not just politically, maybe even more so economically, as socio-economic conditions have worsened since 2011.

Field Marshal Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.

Ahmed Maher detained.

Alaa Abd El-Fattah detained by the military.

The US refused to call it a coup, but withheld military aid forth an annually US$1,6 billion. The Egyptians started negotiations to buy military equipment from Russia, an important supporter of former President Nasser. The US and West need a stable Egypt in a region of war and rising al-Qaida groups. Now the US has restored aid.

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) distrust the Muslim Brotherhood pledged US$12 billion in support of the Egyptian regime, giving some relief. Qatar supported Morsi and Egypt with US$ 7,5 billion. But it is not enough to develop the country. Deep economic reforms and investment in education and job-creation is needed.

I am open to your comments and proposals.

Warmly

Bjarte Bjørsvik