The conflict has escalated to a
dangerous level. The country now needs to reduce tensions and calm down the
very tense situation. Retreating security forces from the Independence square
in Kiev is one step, and to negotiate a way forward with a coalition government
taking all major parties in. As the opponents have very different preferences
on what to do, a compromise may be a solution where Ukraine is not siding with
the EU or with Russia.
Late tonight the Ukrainian Parliament has voted to end the use of force, and the Supreme Council has denounced the counter-terrorism campaign
by the intelligence service as unconstitutional. According to the Polish Prime Minister Donald
Tusk, Yanukovich has also agreed to hold early presidential and parliamentary
elections. If this turns out to be correct, it is good news, and will hopefully
lead to a de-escalation of the conflict, but much is still left to be done.
Background
The protests started in November 2013 directed
against the government’s turnaround
policy abandoning an EU Association Agreement. Since then they have been directed
against the government, demanding the resignation of President Yanukovich and
new elections. They want a country based on the rule of law, and are afraid it
will turn into a Russian-style oligarchy. After the government made an amnesty,
protesters vacated government buildings. But on Tuesday after the Parliament
speaker refused to discuss changing the Constitution, protesters marched on the
Parliament. The Police blocked them and violent clashes erupted and spread to
the square.Ukraine is the cradle of the Russian civilization, and has a huge symbolic importance for Russia because of this. Even more important is the strategic location of the country, so close to the Russian heartland. The thought of a hostile power in Kiev is a nightmare for Russia, so unfortunately, I think they are willing to go far to avoid that. For the EU, Ukraine is less important, even with its 45 million inhabitants. And the EU cannot afford to support them financially as Russia is now. The US has increasing tensions with Russia, and it seems that they are taking a tougher position and clearly supporting the opposition.
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| Presidents Yanukovich and Putin in 2006. |
Regional differences
In central and Western Ukraine
Ukrainian-speaking are in majority. In the Eastern and South Eastern provinces
(Oblasts) Russian speaking inhabitants are in majority or a huge minority. In
total the ethnic Ukrainians constitute 77.8%, and Russians 17.3% according to
the CIA
World Factbook.
The first two months of demonstrations were
mainly centered in Kiev’s Independence Square, but have now spread to more
cities in the Western part of the country. Protesters have attempted to, or
taken over government buildings. In Lvov, a traditionally west-oriented city, protesters
have declared independence from the government. This is a serious challenge to
the government. In the midst of this the Russians have encouraged to delegate more
power to the regions. Some fear the country may split. Control of the military
is essential to the government, and on 19 February the Commander of the armed
forces was replaced with a Navy commander considered a hardliner.
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| Ukrainian speakers (%) by province according to the 2001 census . |
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| Russian speakers (%) by
province according to the 2001 census.
Economy
Ukraine is in a difficult economic
situation, and need financial support. Russia has pledged US$ 15 billion and paid
out US$ 3 billion of those. Another US$ 3 billion was postponed this week, giving Russia leverage in negotiations over the political fututre of UkraineThe EU tempts the Ukrainians with access to the EU
market.
Now, because of the violence the
European investment bank froze its activities. And the today the EU
imposed asset freeze and travel bans on those Ukrainian
officials they see as responsible for the violent crackdown. The US has
announced visa bans on 20 members of the Ukrainian government.
Sources and more information
I am open to your comments and
proposals.
Warmly
Bjarte Bjørsvik
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