Iraqi elections and conflicts

On 7 March 2010 elections for the Iraqi Parliament were held with US military forces still present. The secular al-Iraqiya became the biggest party with 91 seats, and the leader former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi thought he had the right to form a new government. The State of Law Coalition, run by the incumbent Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, got 89 seats but was not willing to let go of power. He asked for a recount of the votes which was refused. Both the UN and the US said the polls were credible. Months of hard negotiations followed and politicians went to the capitals of neighbouring countries, giving them influence. It left the country without a government in the world’s longest cabinet crisis in a parliamentary system.


PM Nouri al-Maliki.

The anti-American Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr lent his support to the Shia Maliki in October, and finally an agreement of a National Unity government was made in November. Al-Maliki would continue in his job, so would the Kurdish President Talabani and the Allawi would lead a new security council. The UN Security Council lifted some restrictions that had been imposed on Saddam Hussein’s regime.

Continued conflicts
Iraq continued its difficult path with deep internal rifts between Shia, Sunni and Kurdish groups and foreign meddling. Al-Maliki’s government was not fully accepted by parliament, and he retained a lot of power as acting minister of Defence, Interior and national security. The council Allawi was to lead was never formed. The Arab spring came to Iraq in February 2011 as thousands of demonstrators protested against high unemployment, corruption and lack of public services, still security improved in 2011. The US wanted some troops to stay on, but was not wanted and withdrew by the end of 2011. Days after US forces left the Vice President the Sunni al-Hashimi was accused of having run a death squad. He fled to the Kurdish Autonomous region, and later to Turkey. He was sentenced to death in absentia.

Syrian and regional conflicts spill-over

The uprising against Bashar al-Assad in Syria led to increased tensions in Iraq, but the government fear Sunni extremists taking power there, and violence spilling over to Iraq. The conflict between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia intensified, and the neighbouring countries support groups inside Iraq. Tensions and violence has increased, and the Sunni extremist group al-Qaeda is behind some of the attacks. Their goal is to create chaos so people lose faith in the authorities, and they can take over and run the country according to their interpretation of Sharia law. Al-Qaeda has some, but relatively little support. But in January 2014 the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) seized some areas in Anbar province in western Iraq. The army laid siege to the areas and hundreds were killed. Muqtada al-Sadr announced he would withdraw from politics in February and denounced Maliki’s government. Many Sadrists resigned their posts. Most Iraqis long for peace and security, work and good governance. The next Parliamentary elections are coming up on 30 April. Hopefully they are results transparent and accepted by most parties so Iraq can get a more stable political situation.

Increased oil production and reserves
At the same time oil production has increased and Iraq passed Iran and exported 2,2 million barrels a day in 2012. The reserves are the fifth biggest in the world. Much needed income is flowing to the Iraqi state coffers and the government’s 2013 budget increased to US$ 118 billion. China has invested heavily and become the biggest buyer with close to 1.5 million barrels a day. The Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) continued to sign oil contracts with foreign companies, including Exxon Mobil. The government in Baghdad says this is illegal, and threatened to cut financial transfers to the KRG.  In 2014 the KRG has started direct exports to Turkey in spite of Baghdad’s protests. Production is estimated to increase further, but so far US oil companies have got few contracts.

 

I am open to your comments and proposals.
Warmly
Bjarte Bjørsvik