Putin’s re-election & Russia's internal challenges

On 4 March 2012 Vladimir Putin was elected President of Russia for a third term. He nominated Dmitry Medvedev as Prime Minister. Boris Yeltsin had appointed Putin acting president on 31 December 1999, later he was elected twice. The constitution prevented Putin from doing a third consecutive term in 2008, so he chose Dmitry Medvedev as his successor, while he served as Prime Minister. In 2012 the “tandem” as they were called switched roles. But now the presidential term had been extended to six years, so Putin is likely to steer Russia until 2024.

Russia’s 17 million km² makes it the largest country in the world. A population of 143 million is the world’s 9^th most populous. After ascending power Putin strengthened the state’s grip on the economy and limited the oligarchs’ power. Huge exports of oil and gas and high prices on these commodities, made the state’s finances strong. The population’s living standards recovered markedly from the disastrous 1990s, and so did their pride of Russia. Most people tolerated and even applauded a strong man in Kremlin and forsake democracy and liberty. A clear majority voted for both Putin, even though reports of fraud seem to be correct.

 



Putin taking the presidential oath at his 3rd inauguration ceremony, 7 May 2012.

Challenges

But Russia faces huge challenges with structural problems of the economy, corruption and a shrinking population and the leadership knows it. So far they seem to think the best way is that they steer the process of change top down, while enriching themselves. They crack down on the political opposition, journalists and human rights workers and hope this will frighten others from raising their voice. A classical policy of autocratic rule, but will it work? The Ukrainian president Yanukovich got huge demonstrations because of corruption, mismanagement and autocratic rule and suddenly fell from power and fled. Russia has some of the same challenges, and is not as stable as it may seem. The 1917 revolution and the implosion of the Soviet Union in 1991 showed how fast the system can collapse. I think Putin’s knows this, and that his deepest fear is social discontent and popular uprisings in this huge country. His strategy is to rule with a hard hand to hold it together. It hurts or destroys those hit, and it is in my opinion a risky strategy for the whole population. Corruption may be fought better with room for people informing about corrupt officials, and make the system transparent with good old rule of law.

 

 

 

Economy

The international financial crisis of 2008, had negative effects on Russia, and the GDP sank by 10% in the first half of 2009. This was more than other oil-exporting countries, and it showed how vulnerable Russia was. Putin and Medvedev expressed a clear need for economic reforms and modernization. But it has turned out to be difficult, and so has the fight against corruption.

 

Transparency International rank Russia no. 127 out of 175 countries in its Corruption Perceptions Index 2013. In surveys people are asked how corrupt they perceive the public sector to be on a scale of 0 – 100, where 0 means that a country is perceived as highly corrupt and 100 means it is perceived as very clean. Russia scored 28, the same as in 2012. The World Bank ranks Russia as no. 92 of 189 economies in its “Ease of doing business“ list. That is an improvement of 19 ranks from 2013. Russia scores worst in getting construction permits and trade across borders.

Civil society and Human rights

Aleksey Navalny launched the whistle-blower website RosPil in 2010. It publicized cases thought to be corrupt, and after half a year it reportedly had one million visits a month. Navalny also ran for the mayor elections in Moscow. He was placed under house arrest in February 2014, forbidden from using internet or having visitors. It will be hard for the authorities to overcome corruption when an anti-corruption campaigner is punished.  

Mass protests, with thousands of demonstrators filling the streets of several cities, in connection with the Parliamentary elections in December 2011 surprised many. Protests continued until the elections, but fizzled out afterwards. In office Putin enacted new laws limiting the opposition. Participants in unauthorized demonstrations got high fines and Non Governmental Organizations receiving funds from abroad were obliged to call themselves “Foreign agents”.

In February 2012 the Punk group “Pussy Riot” made an un-authorized performance in the Cathedral of Christ the Saviour in Moscow criticizing Putin. Many Russians were shocked by the performance and agreed to three members being sentenced to two years in prison for hooliganism. Imprisoning women for protesting against the president of a country may show his and the system’s toughness, but hardly safety of the president’s position or integrity of the authorities.

Pussy Riot member Nadezhda Tolokonnikova sentenced to two years in prison.

Population

The last census made in 2010, showed a population of 142.86 million, a decline of 2.3 million since 2002, and over 5 million since the early 1990s. The official estimate for 2013 is 143.3 million. Ethnic Russians made up 81% of the population. The birth rate has increased the last few years, but it is still below the reproduction rate. A positive net migration counters this. The latest UN medium prospect estimates the population to shrink to 121 million by 2050. A low estimate gives 103 million and a high gives 140 million. Projections are uncertain, but the tendency seems clear, if the birth, death and migration rates continue as they are now, Russia’s population will decrease. Several countries will pass Russia, and it will be more difficult for the government to reach its expressed goal of being a powerful country.

 

 

 

I am open to your comments and proposals.

Regards
Bjarte Bjørsvik