Ukraine-crisis escalating – Need for direct talks

Today Russia threatened to attack Ukrainian forces in Crimea if they don’t surrender by Tuesday morning. The Russians denied this later in the evening. This is the latest step in an escalation of the conflict in and about Ukraine. Last weekend Russian forces occupied air- and naval-bases in Crimea. Government buildings in Donetsk were stormed by pro-Russian people today and the regional council voted to hold a referendum on the region’s status. The ousted President Yanukovich has asked Russia to intervene militarily. The US and the West has responded by halting preparations for the G8 summit in Sochi in June, and Obama has warned Russia saying “There will be costs” The Russian stock market fell today by 11%, and the ruble by 2,5% against the US$. World stock markets are also affected negatively. In short: Russia and the West is entering it most serious security crisis since the end of the Cold War.

A Crimean self-defense militia stands guard in Simferopol, 2 March.

Why is Russia doing this?

The implications and risks are great for all involved parties. Russia claims Russian citizen’s lives are under threat in Crimea and that the West is taking Neo-Nazis side in Kiev. There are no known attacks or threats against Russians in Crimea, and yes there exist right-wing groups in Ukraine that have benne active in the demonstrations and street-fighting, but the West has shown no support of these. The Russian claims have little basis and are probably made to make Russia’s population believe and it and get their support in the occupation of Crimea.


But Ukraine is strategically important to Russia for several reasons: It is close to the Russian heartland, and an anti-Russian government in Kiev is a threat to Russia, the naval base in Sevastopol on Crimea which Russia took in a war against the Ottoman Empire in the 1770s is vital to Russia. According to a WikiLeaks cable President Putin told the NATO summit in 2008 "the Crimea was simply given to Ukraine by a decision of the Politburo of the Soviet Communist Party Central Committee.  There haven't even been any state procedures regarding transfer of the territory, since we take a very calm and responsible approach to the problem."  Putin claimed that 90 percent of inhabitants of the Crimea are Russian, 17 out of 45 million Ukrainian citizens are Russian, and that Ukraine gained enormous amounts of its territory from the east and south at the expense of Russia.  He added, "if we add in the NATO question and other problems, the very existence of the State could find itself under threat."  This was a clear warning to the West not to make Ukraine move closer. The Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008 underlined that he meant it for real. The toppling of the pro-Russian government in Kiev last month and laws refusing Russian language to be recognized as official language has triggered the Russians.

What can be done about it?

The West is unlikely to intervene militarily and the Ukrainian military is too weak to make offensive moves against Russia.

The conflict requires de-escalation and a political solution. Direct high-level meetings between Russian, Ukrainian and Western leaders to talk about the underlying needs, and find a compromise that is acceptable to everyone. It is a daunting task, as the stakes and emotions are high. If they fail, we risk a prolonged occupation of Crimea and possibly other parts of Ukraine, and in worst case armed actions and war.

 

Sources and more information

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26413953
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-03/bank-rossii-raises-key-rate-150-basis-points-on-stability-risks.html
http://www.stratfor.com/situation-report/ukraine-gazprom-threatens-raise-natural-gas-prices

I am open to your comments and proposals.
Warmly
Bjarte Bjørsvik