Today a deal started between Iran and the
P5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council + Germany ). Iran
will halt its process of enriching Uranium to 20%, and allow more inspections
at the Natanz and Fordow plants and Arak reactor. Some of the economic
sanctions on Iran will be lifted. This includes release of US$ 4.2 billion of
Iranian funds. The deal, which is basically between the US and Iran, will be
implemented during the next 6 months and then evaluated. The UN watchdog
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) which will monitor Iran’s fulfillment
confirmed
today that enrichment has stopped. It
is a major breakthrough after years
of mistrust and conflict and in many ways a historic deal. The conflict started
with the fall of the Shah and the Iranian revolution in 1979. The choice of
todays date is maybe not a coincidence. On 20 January 1981 the American
hostages in the Embassy in Tehran were relieved, just minutes after Ronald
Reagan was inaugurated as the new US president.
 |
| The heavy water reactor
in Arak, Iran. |
For Iran,
the deal makes it possible to develop the country economically against having
a. The regime wants to stay in power, and the sanctions have been taking a toll
on development. A strengthened Iran will change the balance of power in the
Middle East, and that is part of what the US accepts.
The US
have according to Stratfor the goal of balancing Shia Iran
against the Sunni, especially the extremist Jihadist. Especially Israel and Saudi Arabia are concerned about their own security. The US will
continue to support them and other allies in the region, but will not take so
many costs as before. Instead the US will benefit from improved relations with
Iran a country of 70 million people and great energy resources. European countries, especially Germany,
France and the UK also expect to gain from investing and trading with Iran.
 |
Catherine Ashton, P5+1 and Iran foreign ministers negotiating in
Geneva.
|
The goal
is to continue negotiations and come to a final agreement on a transparent
Iranian civil nuclear programme and lifting of all sanctions. It will probably
include agreements on Iranian influence in Iraq, Syria and Hizbollah in
Lebanon. Tough negotiations and hard talk and accusations in the media will
probably follow for the rest of 2014, and will hopefully lead to a safer and
more stable Middle East.
More information
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Warmly
Bjarte Bjørsvik
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