17. januar 2014

Blowing in the wind

On 17 January 1991 the Gulf War Coalition led by the United States started to bombard Iraq and Kuwait. Operation Desert Storm was the largest air campaign since World War II with 109.876 sorties during 43 days. The Iraqi military blew up 600-700 oil-wells, darkening the sky. On 24 February the ground forces moved in, and within 100 hours the Iraqi force had withdrawn from Kuwait.

Kurds in the north and Shia in the South of Iraq responded positively to US radio stations promising US support. They rose up against Saddam Hussein’s regime, and were cut down. No-fly zones were implemented in response, and the Kurds suddenly got the autonomy they had longed for. Saddam, weakened, stayed in power, but the Iraqi people suffered under heavy UN sanctions.

The Arab world was split in supporting him or the Coalition. Osama bin-Laden couldn’t believe that the Saudi monarchs let infidels enter the land of the holiest places in Islam. He left for Sudan and started to plan his Jihad. The response would come like a lightning from the sky in 2001. 


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/04/USAF_F-16A_F-15C_F-15E_Desert_Storm_edit2.jpg
US F-15 and F-16 fighters over burning Kuwaiti oil-wells.


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fb/Iraqi_T-72_tanks.jpg
Iraqi T-72 tanks (Soviet made).


Background 
Saddam had come to power in Iraq in 1978 and ran the country through fear and repression. Thinking that the new regime in Iran was weak after the 1979-revolution he invaded Iran in 1980. That was a costly decision. At the end of the war in 1988 the country, which in the 1970s had been relatively well functioning and prosperous, was in shatters. Half a million men had died, and opposition to him grew. The Kurds bid for autonomy, and were met with bombs and gas (in Halabja) in the Anfal campaign killing around a total of 50.000- 100.000 people. The Shia, and even Sunni in opposition were also suppressed. No one but some Ba’ath party members were trusted. The US moved closer to Saddam seeking normal relations, and opening the Iraqi market to US companies. And the need for reconstruction was huge; the problem was how to finance it. 

Economic challenges 
The war against Iran had been costly, but because oil exports had been severely limited during the war, Iraq had borrowed 40 billion US$ from the Gulf States it. Now it was pay-back time, and debt payment took over 50% of the oil income in 1990. At the same time oil prices were falling to 14 US$ in July 1990 because Kuwait and other Gulf States produced more than their OPEC quotas allowed. Kuwait had established refineries and the Q-8 gas-station chain in Europe, and profited more on refining and selling gas, than on crude oil. There was little room for reconstruction in Iraq. Saddam protested against Kuwait and claimed they were drilling into Iraq from Kuwait and stealing oil. He also claimed Kuwait to belong to Iraq, based on Ottoman-period administrative borders. Slowly Arab leaders began to take Saddam’s claims more seriously and Egyptian president Mubarak facilitated talks, but neither they nor the US government thought Saddam really would invade Kuwait. 

Saddam tried to sound out the US position, and had a meeting with the US ambassador to Baghdad, April Glaspie on 25 July 1990. In the Wikileaks document Ambassador Glaspie expressed her hope for peaceful settlement but also responded to Saddam:
30. NOTE: ON THE BORDER QUESTION, SADDAM REFERRED TO THE 1961 AGREEMENT AND A "LINE OF PATROL" IT HAD ESTABLISHED. THE KUWAITIS, HE SAID, HAD TOLD MUBARAK IRAQ WAS 20 KILOMETERS "IN FRONT" OF THIS LINE. THE AMBASSADOR SAID THAT SHE HAD SERVED IN KUWAIT 20 YEARS BEFORE; THEN, AS NOW, WE TOOK NO POSITION ON THESE ARAB AFFAIRS.
31. COMMENT: IN THE MEMORY QF THE CURRENT DIPLOMATIC CORPS, SADDAM HAS NEVER SUMMONED AN AMBASSADOR. HE IS WORRIED.
Saddam seemingly interpreted that the US would not interfere in Arab-Arab conflicts and expanded his attack on Kuwait from a minor operation to seize the whole country.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f1/%D8%B4%D9%87%DB%8C%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86_%D8%AD%D9%84%D8%A8%DA%86%D9%87.jpg
Kurdish victims in Halabja.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f0/Glaspie_hussein.jpg
US Ambassador April Glaspie meets Saddam Hussein.



Invasion of Kuwait
On 2 August 1990 the Iraqi military took Kuwait in a surprising invasion. The Emir and family fled to Saudi Arabia, the Crown prince requested the US for military support. The UN Security Council was convened and passed resolution after resolution against Iraq. Many Arab leaders were surprised to see the Soviet Union voting in favor of the US. They had not come to grips with that the Cold War was over and the Soviets had no power to run against the single super power. So instead of meaningless resistance to the US, Gorbachev went along. Saddam played on the Arab street and had success in demanding withdrawal from Kuwait linked to Israeli withdrawal from occupied Palestinian territories and Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon. The US were unwilling to even consider this, and were afraid of  a further Iraqi thrust south to the huge Saudi Arabian oil-fields in the Eastern province, just south of Kuwait. So was the Saudi King, but at the same time he was well aware of the internal opposition to welcome US troops.


The Arab reaction 
The highly conservative Wahhabi clerics protested against the presence of military non-Muslim presence in Saudi Arabia. Osama bin-Laden was back from a successful jihad in Afghanistan against the Soviets. They had lost and retreated in 1989. Bin-Laden wrote to the Saudi minister of interior that he could get an army of 100.000 men to fight Iraq. He got no reply, and the government chose the American solution. An emergency summit at the Arab League in Cairo, close to Tahrir square, was called on 10 August. Several leaders, including Algeria, Libya, Sudan, Jordan, Yemen and PLO were deeply anti-imperialist and suspicious of US intentions. After two hours discussion President Mubarak pressed for a vote on a resolution to condemn the invasion and support Saudi Arabia’s call for Arab military support against Iraq. The result was ten in favor and nine against. They were unable to reconcile. Saddam then turned to the Arab public saying that Israel had ignored several UN resolutions to withdraw from Palestine, and now the US was got willing Arab leaders to follow UN Security Resolutions. Many Arabs in Jordan and occupied Palestinian territories supported Saddam, and so did Yasser Arafat. But as Saddam had positioned himself so openly, he had little room for compromise. The US assembled a Coalition of 34 countries from all continents and 950.000 troops. UN Security Resolution 678 had set 15 January as a deadline for withdrawal. Nothing happened on the 15 or 16. Then at 2 am on 17 January the force was unleashed.


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/ca/Osama_bin_Laden_portrait.jpg
Osama bin-Laden upset by US presence.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/79/BrennendeOelquellenKuwait1991.jpg
Some of the 600-700 Kuwaiti blown up by Iraqi forces.







The war 
Saddam sent 42 Scud-missiles against Israel in attempt to draw them into the fight, they did not succeed. Many Palestinians cheered the rockets hitting as they were used to be on the receiving end of rockets. Saudi Arabia got 4 Scuds.  Little damage was made. The Iraqi forces pumped 4 million barrels of oil into the Persian Gulf creating an environmental disaster. The 600-700 oil-wells they blew up darkened the sun. As the Iraqi army withdrew in panic from Kuwait thousands got stuck in a traffic jam on the Mutla Ridge towards the Iraqi border. Coalition aircraft destroyed about 1.000 vehicles and the ensuing killing led to accusations of disproportionate use of force. Bush pushed for a cease fire which came into effect on 28 February.


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e0/DesertStormMap_v2.svg
Map of Operation Desert Storm

Consequences

Kuwaitis were relieved, and hundreds of thousands came back, although thousands were killed, displaced or missing.

In Iraq the numbers are uncertain with estimates ranging from 5.000-200.000 civilians killed. The bombing had destroyed much infrastructure. In addition many were affected by the use of ammunition with depleted uranium.

The Kurds got an autonomy region and held elections in 1992, much to Turkey’s consternation. Turkey has its own Kurdish population struggling for autonomy, and the Turkish were not happy with the US enforced no-fly zone.

The Coalition forces suffered a few hundred dead. Around 200.000 US troops are affected by the Gulf War syndrome characterized not by any definable medical condition or diagnostic test but by variable and nonspecific symptoms such as fatigue, anxiety, muscle and joint pains, headaches, memory loss, and posttraumatic stress reactions.  Sources is suspected to be chemical agents, Sarin gas, smoke from burning oil, combat stress, pesticides, depleted uranium ammunition and other. Stress has been ruled out a single source, destruction of Iraqi munitions may be a source.

Palestine, Jordan and Yemen all resource-poor countries lost vital financial support from the Gulf States after the war. Palestinians were not so welcome in Kuwait anymore.

Saddam stayed in power, and the instability in the region continued. A war later the situation even worsened in Iraq. But the Saudi oil-fields are for now in Saudi hands.


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f8/Demolished_vehicles_line_Highway_80_on_18_Apr_1991.jpg

The Death road on Mutla ridge.



http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/51/IrakDesertStorm1991.jpg
Tanks and other vehicles on the Mutla ridge.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5f/Gulfwar_1991_in_Israeli_shelter.jpg
Israelis with gasmasks in shelter.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/42/Coalition_of_the_Gulf_War_vs_Iraq.png
Countries that deployed coalition forces or provided support.


Sources and more information
The Arabs”, Eugene Rogan, Basic Books New York 2009. page 439-456. Eugene Rogan is he director of the Middle East Centre at St. Antony’s College, Oxford, UK.

I am open to your comments and proposals.

Regards
Bjarte Bjørsvik

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